UPA

The election results surprised everyone and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh , emerged stronger than ever before . With numbers in hand , he seemed to open his second innings as PM with more confidence , less interference from bullying , blackmailing regional small parties .

But life is not that easy after all , right ?

So the spanner was thrown in the otherwise seemingly smooth government formation by Congress’s old , trusted ally “ DMK ( Dravida Munetra Kazhagam ) the strong party of Tamil Nadu. DMK with 18 members wanted to extract its pound of flesh like in 2004 , forgetting the fact that Congress in 2009 is bit different from how it was in the previous 5 year’s governance.

So what we have ? A fight of egos , arrogance , and authority and power.

For DMK and its head M Karunanidhi , DMK now stands for Dynasty of M Karunanidhi. Daughter  Kanimozhi , Son M K Azhagiri , Grand nephew , Dayanidhi maran all have won the election and would have to be inducted in the new government. ( not to forget the CM in waiting , younger son M K Stalin , making it a complete dynasty party ) . If all three of them are inducted , there would be noises within party and from opposition for making a family cabinet in the centre at the cost of other candidates. So , he needs to induct other senior leaders like TR Balu and A Raja , who were ministers in the previous government just to make sure it is not just a family cabinet representing DMK. So it needs more cabinet berths , Simple.

For Congress , Post results have surprised itself and they definitely would not want to be bullied by other parties. Last five years was definitely a tough time for them , balancing the egos , ambitions , selfishness of their allies and managing the full term. With new confidence and mandate , they are in no mood to be bullied this time around too . So bowing to DMK , would give out a wrong signal to other allies. So DMK has to be checked , simple. After all , DMK government in TN is supported by Congress’s 35 members . So DMK would not make any extreme step to rock their government in state. Stalemate. That is what we have , with Congress having the upper hand , albeit little discomfiture.

DMK has decided to stay away from the government ( at least as of now when am writing this post ) Am sure , they would be now regretting the over the board tough stance they took and going in public very soon of their intention to stay out of government.DMK  would have been taken by surprise congress’s  tough stance.  After all , the good old wily politician that he is – Karunanidhi , sure knows what it means by being part of Government and staying out of it .

For Karunanidhi , Blood is thicker than party but for once , he failed to gauge the pulse of 2009 .

May 13

The Great Indian Political Battle

The Final phase of polling.

86 seats

10.8 Crore electorate

1,432 Candidates

0.12 million polling station

0.5 million polling staff

7 states &  2 UT

( Parts of Jammu & Kashmir , Punjab , UP , West Bengal , and whole of Himachal Pradesh , Tamil nadu , Uttarkhand , Pondichery and Chandigargh )

Key contestants : P Chidambaram , Mamtha Bannerjee , Varun Gandhi , Menaka Gandhi , Jaya Pradha , Mohammed Azharudin , Mani Shankar Aiyar , Dayanidhi Maran , Sajjad lone.

My Interesting battles : Varun Gandhi , Menaka Gandhi , Jaya Pradha , Sajjad Lone( ofcourse due to all the controversies generated , though the win of the first two are almost certain , the victory margin would make a good analysis )

The final phase is a keenly watched battle for me as Tamil nadu is my native state. The battle is this southern battle is spearheaded by the two rival parties : DMK and ADMK , one headed by old will seasoned politician M Karunanidhi and the other by the never say die battle hardened charismatic women politician J Jayalalitha , popularly called “Amma” . 39 states of TN would be a crucial block for any new government formation and this time “Amma” is poised to sweep the majority of the numbers and avenging her humiliating complete rout last time that send her into almost political hibernation for 5 years.

Back in Kashmir , the separatist leader , Sajjad Lone defying the warnings of other separatist has taken a positive step of battling it out in democratic way. I welcome his decision . Democracy has a solution for all problems and hope this would make a positive impact for the republic of India.

So the battle finally comes to its end game. Whole India would be waiting for the D-day that is 16th may , when the results would pour in , along with heartburns , victory smiles , anguish , despair and with that the hunt for allies to reach the magical number of 272 to form the new government.

Kaun banega the new PM of 1 billion plus  population ? Lets wait for a few more days.

Last few weeks , NDA seems to have gathered a bit of steam but will it translate to votes and victories ? we have to wait for 16th..

Left seem to have reconciled to their not so great performance in election 2009 and have already made small voices of supporting congress to keep the BJP away .. so will they support the Congress yet again ? Again the answer will be on 16th ..  If they finally support Congress , am sure they will block Manmohan singh’s second term as PM. So who will be the new PM , incase Congress comes back to power ?

Will the dream of Mayawati and Jayalalitha , Sharad Pawar for the PM chair come true as a wild card candidate ?

For all that numerous questions and probabilities , the answer lies on 16th May.

Lets , wait and watch and write and read.

May 7 , 2009

The Great Indian Political Battle

4th phase of Indian General Election .

7 states and National Capital Territory ( Delhi )

85 seats

95 million voters

1,315 candidates

0.13 million polling station

0.6 million polling staffs

All the seats of Delhi , Rajasthan and Haryana and one seat in J & K and part of Punjab , UP , Bihar , and West Bengal goes to poll today.

Key Contestants :

Lalu Prasad Yadav , Mulayam Singh Yadav , Pranab Mukherjee, Rajnath Singh , Farooq Abdullah , Shatrugan sinha , Sachin Pilot .

Interesting battles :

• The fate of Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal’s daughter-in-law , Harsimrat Kaur and son of former CM  Amarinder Singh , Raninder Singh will be decided today on a direct fight for family honor in Bhatinda.
• BJP President Rajnath Singh is sweating it out in Ghaziabad , UP . Its important to note that Rajnath Singh has taken a risk by contesting in a constituency not highly favorable to him in caste equation .

The Great Indian Political Battle

April 30 , 2009

Third Phase of Election.

9 states and 2 Union territories

( Jammu and Kashmir , UP , MP , Maharashtra ,  Gujarat , Karnataka , Bihar , Sikkim Dadra & Nagar haveli , Daman & Diu  )

144  million voters

1567 candidates

0.17 million polling stations

Key Contestants : Sonia Gandhi , HD Deve Gowda , Jaswant Singh , LK Advani.

A crucial phase for BJP , would be hoping to get rich dividends from the states of Karnataka , Gujarat , MP , Bihar and Maharashtra .

Activist and dancer Mallika Sarabhai  is contesting as Independent in Gandhinagar , pitting herself against heavy weight BJP’s current numero uno LK Advani .In spite of the rubble and noise and bits and bytes , I don’t think she will be able to make a big dent on the record of LK Advani in his constituency .

The result I would be eager to see is in Dakshin Kannada . After the recent untoward incidence caused by Sri Ram sena activists and the subsequent Pink chaddi campaigns and the church attacks , definitely mangalore belt is an area to watch and what direction they will make would be keenly followed by many including yours bloggingly  !

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On a dismal note , the voters turn out in Mumbai was pathetically low . I would have liked the mumbaikars stepping out in large numbers and vote their rights and make a statement on the terrorism issue. After all , they have seen a lot , felt a lot , been affected a lot by terrorism . Mumbaikars , sorry folks , you lost a golden lesson to teach the politicians.

The Great Indian Political Battle – The Second phase

April 23 , 2009

12 states.

195  million eligible voters.

2041 candidates.

2,22,350 polling stations

Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Goa, Jammu and Kashmir, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Orissa, Tripura, Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand

Key Contestants : Rahul Gandhi , Sharad Pawar , Sushma Swaraj , HD Kumaraswamy  , Captain Gopinath , Ananth Kumar

This second phase of election is memorable for me for the sole reason , I casted my vote for the first time. So was I thrilled ? Yep ! Me and my wife got up around 7 , had garam ginger chai and went to caste our votes. The polling booth is quiet near to our place . There were many booths made , so there was not much crowd and it was a smooth event and I pressed the button and got the ink on my finger as a proof of voting ! Whom did we vote ? I pressed the button for BJP while my wife clicked Congress. so 50 : 50 verdict !

Bangalore votes :

So Bangalore being my adopted city now , I had enrolled in the voters list and casted my vote in Bangalore north constituency. To be frank , I was disappointed with the contestants of Bangalore north. Though my voting affiliation is with BJP , the candidate was a big let down. BJP has fielded Chandre Gowda , who defected from Congress just few weeks back. The 70 plus candidate who quit last minute to grab the BJP ticket got my vote in spite of my disliking for the political opportunism he displayed. Well , its another fact that  politics and opportunism goes hand in glove but reality bites. Some of my friends asked my why I root for BJP , allegedly “ communal ” party , Well , would write a post on that some day soon. Congress has fielded yet another good old Jaffer Sharief . After delimitation , I think it would be a tough call to predict the winner in Bangalore north.

Bangalore South has impressive candidates . Ananth Kumar , the three time MP and the number two in the power hierarchy of Karnataka BJP is facing Krishan Byre Gowda , a young seemingly impressive candidate from Congress . To add excitement to the already active young list of candidates is Captain Gopinath , the Deccan aviation chief. Captain may not win the seat but am interested to see how much he would fly the electoral race. I am also eager to see , If the hype that was build around Byre Gowda would match the confident Ananth Kumar. Tough fight in cards !

Bangalore rural sees “farmer “ Deve Gowda’s Son HD Kumaraswamy seeking revenge on “Giant killer ” Tejeswani Gowda , who stunned everyone last time by defeating Gowda Senior. Other day , I followed the Tejeswani on a local channel and  was impressed by the lady’s energy and campaign . I would like to see her defeat Gowda Jr but then again it would be a tough battle ..

Assembly Election :

Orissa and AP also have their state assembly election alongside. So its time for voters to review Naveen Patnaik and YSR . Chiranjeevi is contesting from Tirupati and also Chandra babu naidu hoping his grand alliance will push him back to limelight. Lets wait and watch ..

17 states

124 constituencies

More than 75 million votes cast out of 143.1 million strong electorate.

1,715 candidates

Over 300,000 EVMs used

The first phase of The Great Indian Election kick started today .

Today’s battle will decide the fate of key contestants  : Lalu Prasad Yadav , Murli Manohar Joshi , Yashwant Singh , Renuka Chowdhary , Shashi Tharoor , Praful Patel , K Chandresekar Rao and S Jaipal Reddy.

The first phase included the naxal infected areas and predictably there were naxal attacks on few pockets that sadly took away 17 lives.

According to news agencies Polling was reportedly lower when compared to the previous elections.

Quote of the day :

We are sweeping the polls in Bihar.

- Lalu Prasad Yadav

Man ! We should take a leaf of positive thinking from these politicians !!!

On the day the real battle started and the voters had their ink on their hand as a mark of casting votes , BJP’s latest poster boy Varun Gandhi was released from jail by Supreme court.  Mr.Gandhi , Mind your language please !

The result am eager to know : Sashi Tharoor.

Heavy weight battle :

Lalu Prasad Yadav (RJD) Vs Rajiv Pratap Rudy (BJP)

MM Joshi (BJP)  Vs Mukthar Ansari (BSP)

My safe bet : Renuka Chowdhary  ( Congress )is going to bite dust in the poll.

The aim was wrong but the message was loud and clear. For the calm and polite Chidambaram , it was a press meet he would not forget and would be in public memory for a long period and for senior Journalist Jarnail Singh , it was a moment of

The smell of shoe was just a reaction and the original foul play smell started with CBI giving clean chit to Jagadish Tytler and Sajjan kumar in the Anti-Sikh riot of 1984 . What a timing ! With the election round the corner , probably Congress wanted to drive a point that they have untainted hands . It’s an unfortunate fact that CBI is reduced to a mere tool in the hands of ruling governments to twists and turn the facts for their convenience. Even if CBI gave a clean chit , Congress party who claims to be the guardian angel of secularism in India , should not have given LS tickets to Jagadish Tytler and Sajjan kumar , respecting the sentiments of the Sikh population. But does anyone listen ?

I heard some people say “ Pen is mightier than shoe " and what Jarnail Singh did was condemnable .  Well , I agree that as a citizen of democratic nation , it was condemnable act but having said that let us also think from the other perspective. How effective would Jarnail Singh would have been , had he wrote an article in news paper condemning the CBI verdict and allowing the two person to contest election ? Few people would have read or even many but it would not have made any difference.

So it required an intentionally misaimed shoe missile to bring the issue to the mainstream and public conscience . Hope congress learnt its lesson and at least mend its mistakes and withdraw the candidature of Jagadish tytler and Sajjan Kumar.

• At the end of the episode , both Chidambaram and Jarnail Singh won my appreciation though . When I say Chidambaram , I meant Chidambaram as a  person and not  a congress man.
• I really appreciate the way PC regained his composure swiftly and asked the journalist to be evacuated gently. He did not file any complaint and the journalist was freed within one hour .
• Jarnail Singh for the calculated act knowing the risk involved . He did regret his act later  saying the issue he raised was right but the method of doing was wrong  but he did made his point loud and clear. He is a senior journalist and he did came out as a hero.

Minutes after the incident , I was telling couple of my friends that Akali Dal will grab this opportunity and would  offer Jarnail Singh LS seat and they did offered ! Politicians !!

Lallu Dozer :

There was another story that developed few days back , when Lalu prasad yadav joined this election season’s elite “ foot in the mouth club " of politicians gone berserk with mindless talk .

If I were the country’s home minister , and if Varun had sait this , then I would have run a roller over his chest , and thought about the consequences later

- Lalu Pradad Yadav

Well , Mr. Yadav , is their any difference between you and Varun now ? Nah.

Amar Singh’s Googly :

Well , Amar Singh tested a googly on his own party chief Mulayam Singh , when he threatened to quit the party protesting Mulayam’s bias for his rival Azam khan. This outburst came as a surprise for me because I always thought Amar Singh had the remote of Mulayam Singh.  That Amar Singh soon made a statement that he would rather leave the world than leave his party is another typical filmy dialogue so typical of our politicians !

The Great Indian Political Battle – Part 4

• A front within a front . SP , RJD , LJP has cuddled up to form a mini front within the UPA. The 3 musketeers have decided to forge an alliance and contest in UP and Bihar and maximize their bargaining power in the post poll scenario. In the era of coalition , you are respected by seat ammunition you have , so you cannot rather blame the “fourth front “ within the front . After all its a survival of fittest ! Well for congress , they have to live with it. Going is tough for them this election , with all their erstwhile alliance partners snubbing them “left” and “right” !
• Third front must be really on cloud number nine in the build up to the election. Things are pretty much going great for the salad front. The players of the front are sure going to be the king makers in the post election scenario , though the egos and personal ambition of the players are so high that a united third front government is a difficult proposition and even if they manage a government , for it to last its full term is next to impossible.
• Thanks to Supreme court , Chiranjeevi’s Praja Rajyam party  in Andhra pradesh and Vijayakant’s DMDK in Tamil nadu have their own respective election symbols . Railway engine for PRP and Two Drums for DMDK. Am keenly looking forward to the assembly election in AP because of the political debut of Chiranjeevi. Gone are those days when NTR and MGR swept the polls in their debut converting their fan following of cinema into votes. Chiranjeevi will not be able to make that kind of political debut but still am sure he will emerge as a king maker in the AP assembly.
• Now lets come to our maratha strongman and the eternally optimistic Sharad Pawar. He gave a nightmare to Cognress for few days when he was reportedly planning to share the dias with CPI(M)’s Prakash karat in Orrisa where NCP has alliance with BJD. Last minute though , he changed his mind and gave a statement his party is with UPA and he has no prime ministerial ambition. Well , these days everyone knows left is right and right is left in politics and what matters finally is the Centre !
• The election manifestos are out and I would write about the high promises of different parties in another post exclusively for it.
• This Election season’s new poster boy Varun Gandhi is resting behind bars thanks to the National Security Act slammed on him by Mayawati. Maneka Gandhi and Mayawati enacted a verbal duel typical of women leads of Indian TV serials . Menaka Gandhi was denied a chance to see her son in jail and she vented out

               Menaka Gandhi : “  Maywati is not mother that’s why she would not  understand a mother’s pain "

               Mayawati : “ Menaka forgets that even without being a mother you can understand pain of a million people just like Mother Teresa did. Menaka is so absorbed in love for her one son that she forgot that if there were any communal riots over Varun Gandhi’s statement many mothers would have lost their sons “

               Menaka Gandhi : "Mother Teresa would never have got someone murdered on her birthday but it happened to an engineer," "Mother Teresa never indulged in corruption. Mayawati should learn a lesson from her "

               Mayawati : “ Before making comments against me, Maneka should realise that senior leader of BJP Atal Bihari Vajapee the party on whose ticket she was contesting elections was also unmarried. Does she find any fault in Atal or she did not get proper support from him "

Well with this filmy dialogues enacted in our real political scene am signing off this TGIPB post . Do keep track of my election postings in future.

As election nears , the cup of woes are overflowing for the two main national parties – BJP and Congress.

• BJP is figuring out means to damage control the Varun Gandhi episode. Meanwhile , the young Gandhi is firm on his stance that the CD containing his alleged hate speech  is doctored. The issue  would now likely  go to courts . I am waiting to see if this entire controversy would hamper his Philibit candidature.
• The Congress party , who banked on a united face of UPA alliance , finds itself now the coalition in shambles pre-election. Lalu Prasad Yadav humiliated the Congress by giving 3 seats in Bihar and rubbing more salt to its wound by saying Congress is no entity in Bihar. Congress snubbed Lalu by hitting back in Jharkhand state by giving RJD only 2 seats . Furious RJD decided to contest in all seats in Jharkhand and Congress in turn decides to field candidates on its own in Bihar.
• The seat negotiation between Congress and  SP ( Samajwadi Party ) led by Mulayam Singh Yadav has run into deadlock , with SP contesting on its own in all seats .
• Down South , PMK ( Patali Makal Katchi ) jumped fence to join the ADMK Camp. PMK infamous for changing its colors and crossing over , have proven yet again this time causing heartburn for already beleaguered UPA alliance. It may cost the congress alliance a few seats in Tamil Nadu.

Other than the BJP and Congress , others drinking their cup of woes are :

• Mulayam singh Yadav , who is alleged to have made a derogatory remarks against a District Magistrate. ( Tough time for Election Commission this season ! )
• Chiranjeevi , who is testing the electoral waters for the first time with his newly formed Praja Rajyam in Andhra Pradesh is desperate to see through that his party gets a uniform symbol to contest in all seats. ( I am keenly waiting to see how much his star power would translate into votes ! )

As the Election season heats up , there would definitely be more cups of woes to follow , I will update it as and when it happens …

The meaning of Secularism takes a whole new meaning when it comes to the dictionary of Indian politicians.

BJP ( Bharatiya Janata Party ) is labeled a right wing hindutva communal party by the oppostion parties. They are supposed to have an “agenda” representing only the majority hindu population. They are treated as divisive party because of their saffron affluence. The whole campaign of the so called “secular” parties of India revolves around the notion that BJP is anti – secular because of its Hindutva leanings.

So the parties join together , forge alliances to retain the power all in the name of safeguarding the nation from the anti secular party ( read : BJP) . Good so you think the political parties opposing the BJP are truly secular in nature ?! wait read ahead to couple of  interesting facts.

• Congress , self confessed  champion of secularism , happily aligns with IUML ( Indian Union Muslim League ) , Kerala Congress ( representing the Christians )
• Communists party ( the other major self styled guardian of secularism in India ) have no qualms aligning with the right wing Islamist organization , NDF.
• BJP is accused of being communal on account of  Gujarat riots. Let me make clear am not supporting the Gujarat riot. Gujarat riot is a highly condemnable incident . What baffles me is , BJP is time and again villified for the Gujarat riot by congress and other so called secular partied , In that contexct how does Congress became a “holier and secular ” party when it is solely responsible for unleashing a brutal massacre against Sikhs in Delhi soon after Indira Gandhi’s assasination ? Why does Congress is atoned of its sin conveniently  but BJP is villified again and again ?

So it makes me wonder if it only becomes anti-secular in India ,  if a party has leanings towards Hindu mindset ?! And it becomes a secular force if we align with right wing parties of non-Hindus ?!

Well …… As far as Indian Political dictionary , it seems so.